V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
105.05%
increased by 0.60%
1 Week
126.53%
increased by 22.08%
1 Month
144.44%
increased by 39.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4030 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2895 | 10.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0982 | -1.30 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0365 | 0.51 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8428 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.643
Half-life:
2 days
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