Niki BioSolutions Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
107.46%
decreased by 13.28%
1 Week
128.59%
increased by 7.85%
1 Month
146.72%
increased by 25.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.4131 | 2.53** |
| βGARCH | 0.2814 | 2.46** |
| γleverage | -0.0867 | -0.34 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0352 | 0.53 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8455 | 3.93*** |
0.651
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4131 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2814 | 2.46** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0867 | -0.34 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0352 | 0.53 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8455 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.651
Half-life:
2 days
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