V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
106.83%
decreased by 13.40%
1 Week
126.05%
increased by 5.82%
1 Month
140.33%
increased by 20.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4058 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2865 | 9.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1029 | -1.36 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0367 | 0.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8413 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.641
Half-life:
2 days
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