V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
107.24%
decreased by 16.94%
1 Week
123.76%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
137.36%
increased by 13.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.4080 | 2.51** |
| βGARCH | 0.2877 | 2.45** |
| γleverage | -0.1101 | -0.44 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0371 | 0.54 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8398 | 3.79*** |
0.641
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4080 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2877 | 2.45** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1101 | -0.44 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0371 | 0.54 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8398 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.641
Half-life:
2 days
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