V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
118.28%
decreased by 2.97%
1 Week
156.86%
increased by 35.61%
1 Month
236.59%
increased by 115.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3210 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5183 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4343 | 7.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 10.7758 | 1.74* |
| γ2 | -16.1743 | -1.59 |
| γ3 | 4.6973 | 0.75 |
| γ4 | 3.4120 | 1.00 |
| γ5 | -4.7508 | -1.79* |
| γ6 | 4.1280 | 1.22 |
| γ7 | -4.4439 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 5.1663 | 1.72* |
| γ9 | -7.0456 | -2.07** |
| γ10 | 9.0859 | 2.48** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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