V-Lab
Vulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
93.99%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
101.11%
increased by 5.65%
1 Month
107.90%
increased by 12.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8882 | 4.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.1257 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6112 | 5.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.2095 | -1.52 |
| γ2 | 0.3448 | 1.46 |
0.737
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8882 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1257 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6112 | 5.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.2095 | -1.52 |
| γ2 | 0.3448 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
0.737
Half-life:
2 days
Other Vulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities