Vulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
68.75%
decreased by 3.70%
1 Week
71.72%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
82.57%
increased by 10.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8302 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.2795 | 6.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7205 | 26.34*** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8302 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2795 | 6.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7205 | 26.34*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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