V-Lab
Vulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
89.11%
decreased by 2.55%
1 Week
93.78%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
104.86%
increased by 13.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 4.51 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 57.3326 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0634 | 1.86* |
| βGARCH | 0.9296 | 21.11*** |
| νDF | 4.5124 | 0.52 |
0.930
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 57.3326 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9296 | 21.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5124 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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