V-Lab
Tingo Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,006.51%
1 Week
1,005.78%
1 Month
1,002.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,128.5371 | 1.98** |
| αARCH | 0.1008 | 23.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,081.25*** |
| νDF | 2.6088 | 52.80*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,128.5371 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1008 | 23.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,081.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6088 | 52.80*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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