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Tingo Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

976.79%

decreased by 126.04%

1 Week

976.12%

decreased by 126.71%

1 Month

973.47%

decreased by 129.36%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tingo Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 28, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1,200.7985
2.00**
αARCH0.0983
23.89***
βGARCH0.9990
2,112.05***
νDF2.5331
62.97***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1,200.7985
2.00**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0983
23.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,112.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5331
62.97***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days