Tingo Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,800.70%
decreased by 492.29%
1 Week
4,813.34%
decreased by 479.65%
1 Month
4,863.18%
decreased by 429.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2004 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 553 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~553 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6637 | 2.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1874 | 5.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8113 | 19.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.9305 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -1.4223 | -0.44 |
| γ3 | 0.8726 | 0.77 |
| γ4 | -0.7535 | -1.00 |
| γ5 | 0.3274 | 0.50 |
| γ6 | -0.1083 | -0.16 |
| γ7 | 1.8244 | 2.74*** |
| γ8 | -3.1847 | -3.21*** |
| γ9 | 1.6363 | 1.62 |
0.999
Persistence553d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6637 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1874 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8113 | 19.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.9305 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -1.4223 | -0.44 |
| γ3 | 0.8726 | 0.77 |
| γ4 | -0.7535 | -1.00 |
| γ5 | 0.3274 | 0.50 |
| γ6 | -0.1083 | -0.16 |
| γ7 | 1.8244 | 2.74*** |
| γ8 | -3.1847 | -3.21*** |
| γ9 | 1.6363 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
553 days
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