V-Lab
Tingo Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,093.49%
decreased by 81.95%
1 Week
1,279.25%
increased by 103.81%
1 Month
1,477.05%
increased by 301.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8685 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.3034 | 3.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4797 | 5.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 4.7322 | 5.56*** |
| γ2 | -5.8213 | -4.72*** |
| γ3 | 1.5268 | 1.82* |
| γ4 | -0.5546 | -0.57 |
| γ5 | 0.0021 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.1625 | -0.20 |
| γ7 | 0.5920 | 1.05 |
| γ8 | 1.0347 | 2.52** |
| γ9 | -2.7701 | -5.04*** |
| γ10 | 1.4591 | 2.51** |
0.783
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8685 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3034 | 3.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4797 | 5.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 4.7322 | 5.56*** |
| γ2 | -5.8213 | -4.72*** |
| γ3 | 1.5268 | 1.82* |
| γ4 | -0.5546 | -0.57 |
| γ5 | 0.0021 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.1625 | -0.20 |
| γ7 | 0.5920 | 1.05 |
| γ8 | 1.0347 | 2.52** |
| γ9 | -2.7701 | -5.04*** |
| γ10 | 1.4591 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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