V-Lab
Tingo Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
1,420.29%
increased by 166.66%
1 Week
1,532.54%
increased by 278.91%
1 Month
1,675.16%
increased by 421.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2004 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4303 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.2928 | 3.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5151 | 6.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 3.6741 | 4.89*** |
| γ2 | -4.6600 | -4.43*** |
| γ3 | 1.5263 | 2.52** |
| γ4 | -0.8702 | -1.66* |
| γ5 | 0.2944 | 0.52 |
| γ6 | -0.2433 | -0.49 |
| γ7 | 1.8089 | 3.77*** |
| γ8 | -2.5913 | -4.01*** |
| γ9 | 0.9295 | 1.67* |
0.808
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4303 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2928 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5151 | 6.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 3.6741 | 4.89*** |
| γ2 | -4.6600 | -4.43*** |
| γ3 | 1.5263 | 2.52** |
| γ4 | -0.8702 | -1.66* |
| γ5 | 0.2944 | 0.52 |
| γ6 | -0.2433 | -0.49 |
| γ7 | 1.8089 | 3.77*** |
| γ8 | -2.5913 | -4.01*** |
| γ9 | 0.9295 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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