PepsiCo Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
28.52%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
27.90%
decreased by 2.43%
1 Month
26.11%
decreased by 4.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5048 | 8.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 7.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8480 | 52.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0507 | 4.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.1025 | -6.65*** |
| γ3 | 0.0890 | 8.15*** |
| γ4 | -0.0529 | -4.67*** |
| γ5 | 0.0362 | 3.02*** |
| γ6 | -0.0331 | -3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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