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PepsiCo Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

22.30%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

22.17%

decreased by 1.45%

1 Month

21.72%

decreased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

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graph of PepsiCo Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 389% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 389% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0323
3.55***
βGARCH0.7846
30.33***
γleverage0.1259
5.78***
λ₁tau intercept0.0051
1.64
λ₂forecast adj.0.0443
3.15***
λ₃tau persistence0.9532
64.07***

0.880

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0323
3.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7846
30.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1259
5.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0051
1.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0443
3.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9532
64.07***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days