V-Lab
PepsiCo Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.67%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
18.52%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
20.67%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5238 | 8.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0912 | 7.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8481 | 52.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0517 | 5.09*** |
| γ2 | -0.1037 | -6.83*** |
| γ3 | 0.0892 | 8.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.0516 | -4.56*** |
| γ5 | 0.0317 | 2.44** |
| γ6 | -0.0218 | -1.23 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5238 | 8.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 7.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8481 | 52.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0517 | 5.09*** |
| γ2 | -0.1037 | -6.83*** |
| γ3 | 0.0892 | 8.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.0516 | -4.56*** |
| γ5 | 0.0317 | 2.44** |
| γ6 | -0.0218 | -1.23 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities