V-Lab
PepsiCo Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
20.46%
increased by 1.24%
1 Week
20.98%
increased by 1.76%
1 Month
22.35%
increased by 3.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5204 | 8.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8480 | 52.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0517 | 5.09*** |
| γ2 | -0.1037 | -6.83*** |
| γ3 | 0.0892 | 8.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.0514 | -4.54*** |
| γ5 | 0.0312 | 2.40** |
| γ6 | -0.0196 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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