V-Lab
News Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.93%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Week
23.49%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Month
22.68%
decreased by 3.30%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7287 | 8.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1531 | 5.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7123 | 11.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0150 | -2.66*** |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7287 | 8.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1531 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7123 | 11.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0150 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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