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V-Lab
V-Lab

News Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.93%

decreased by 2.05%

1 Week

23.49%

decreased by 2.49%

1 Month

22.68%

decreased by 3.30%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of News Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7287
8.96***
αARCH0.1531
5.02***
βGARCH0.7123
11.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0150
-2.66***

0.865

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7287
8.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1531
5.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7123
11.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0150
-2.66***

Persistence:

0.865

Half-life:

5 days