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V-Lab

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

34.91%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

34.62%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

33.87%

decreased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9585
8.29***
αARCH0.0800
7.89***
βGARCH0.8474
45.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0171
-0.51
γ20.1064
2.13**
γ3-0.2154
-7.09***
γ40.2085
7.72***
γ5-0.1352
-4.32***
γ60.1263
2.98***
γ7-0.1498
-2.89***
γ80.1228
2.22**
γ9-0.0440
-0.66

0.927

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9585
8.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
7.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8474
45.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0171
-0.51
γ20.1064
2.13**
γ3-0.2154
-7.09***
γ40.2085
7.72***
γ5-0.1352
-4.32***
γ60.1263
2.98***
γ7-0.1498
-2.89***
γ80.1228
2.22**
γ9-0.0440
-0.66

Persistence:

0.927

Half-life:

9 days