V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
29.22%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
30.02%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
32.10%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0884 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0767 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8620 | 25.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0172 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | 0.0372 | 2.04** |
| γ3 | -0.0295 | -1.68* |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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