Alphabet Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
24.56%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
25.10%
increased by 1.62%
1 Month
26.73%
increased by 3.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1382 | 3.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.0708 | 6.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8902 | 52.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.3950 | 1.07 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1382 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0708 | 6.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8902 | 52.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3950 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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