Allurion Technologies Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
276.82%
decreased by 26.25%
1 Week
322.86%
increased by 19.79%
1 Month
677.05%
increased by 373.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.154 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.154 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.3215 | 1.20 |
| βGARCH | 0.8329 | 8.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0309 | 0.78 |
1.154
Persistence-
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3215 | 1.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8329 | 8.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0309 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
1.154
Half-life:
-
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