V-Lab
PepsiCo Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.52%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
20.61%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
20.96%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 0.10 |
| αARCH | 0.0638 | 11.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9298 | 169.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.5251 | 5.50*** |
0.994
Persistence108d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 0.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0638 | 11.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9298 | 169.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5251 | 5.50*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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