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V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

269.78%

decreased by 58.70%

1 Week

320.74%

decreased by 7.74%

1 Month

1,311.35%

increased by 982.87%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Allurion Technologies Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0764
7.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6736
352.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
19.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.5131
2.64***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2009
2.44**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7991
8.30***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

38508 days