V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
269.78%
1 Week
320.74%
1 Month
1,311.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0764 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6736 | 352.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 19.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.5131 | 2.64*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2009 | 2.44** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7991 | 8.30*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
38508 days
Other Allurion Technologies Inc Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities