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V-Lab

Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

21.64%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

22.06%

increased by 1.49%

1 Month

23.28%

increased by 2.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 245% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 245% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0310
3.71***
βGARCH0.8904
84.48***
γleverage0.0760
6.20***
λ₁tau intercept0.0111
1.47
λ₂forecast adj.0.0217
2.22**
λ₃tau persistence0.9737
79.91***

0.959

Persistence

17d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0310
3.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8904
84.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0760
6.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0111
1.47
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0217
2.22**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9737
79.91***

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

17 days