V-Lab
Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
20.42%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
20.86%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
22.18%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 243% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 243% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0310 | 3.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8942 | 85.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.0752 | 6.23*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0128 | 1.34 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0245 | 1.96** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9702 | 62.08*** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0310 | 3.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8942 | 85.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0752 | 6.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0128 | 1.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0245 | 1.96** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9702 | 62.08*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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