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V-Lab

Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

26.40%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

26.34%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

26.24%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 237% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0314
16.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8942
253.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0744
23.03***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0127
6.61***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0245
5.33***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9701
178.56***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days