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V-Lab
V-Lab

Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

21.40%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

21.82%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

23.03%

increased by 1.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 246% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0309
3.71***
βGARCH0.8906
84.67***
γleverage0.0761
6.22***
λ₁tau intercept0.0110
1.47
λ₂forecast adj.0.0214
2.22**
λ₃tau persistence0.9740
80.80***

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0309
3.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8906
84.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0761
6.22***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0110
1.47
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0214
2.22**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9740
80.80***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days