V-Lab
Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.90%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
22.23%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
23.26%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 241% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 16.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8940 | 253.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0751 | 23.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0129 | 6.57*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0248 | 5.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9698 | 176.14*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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