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V-Lab

Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

20.42%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

20.86%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

22.18%

increased by 1.81%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 243% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 243% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0310
3.83***
βGARCH0.8942
85.80***
γleverage0.0752
6.23***
λ₁tau intercept0.0128
1.34
λ₂forecast adj.0.0245
1.96**
λ₃tau persistence0.9702
62.08***

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0310
3.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8942
85.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0752
6.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0128
1.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0245
1.96**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9702
62.08***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days