V-Lab
Chevron Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.85%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
26.95%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
27.32%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0162 | 10.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0685 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 102.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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