V-Lab
Chevron Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.32%
increased by 1.91%
1 Week
24.52%
increased by 2.11%
1 Month
25.22%
increased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0134 | 10.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0684 | 8.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9140 | 102.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.88* |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0134 | 10.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0684 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9140 | 102.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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