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V-Lab

Chevron Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

26.85%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

26.95%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

27.32%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0162
10.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0685
8.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9141
102.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
1.92*

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days