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V-Lab
V-Lab

Chevron Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

24.32%

increased by 1.91%

1 Week

24.52%

increased by 2.11%

1 Month

25.22%

increased by 2.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0134
10.66***
αARCH0.0684
8.25***
βGARCH0.9140
102.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
1.88*

0.982

Persistence

39d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0134
10.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0684
8.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9140
102.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
1.88*

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days