V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.57%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
25.95%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
27.25%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0774 | 9.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0728 | 8.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9068 | 88.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0044 | -3.05*** |
| γ2 | 0.0107 | 3.93*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0774 | 9.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 8.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9068 | 88.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0044 | -3.05*** |
| γ2 | 0.0107 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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