Merck & Co Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
31.53%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
31.39%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
31.02%
decreased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7459 | 10.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0657 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8692 | 34.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0068 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.0131 | 4.84*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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