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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

31.53%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

31.39%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

31.02%

decreased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7459
10.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0657
6.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8692
34.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0068
-4.44***
γ20.0131
4.84***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days