V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.30%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
28.18%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Month
27.91%
decreased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8800 | 9.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0691 | 5.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8475 | 27.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0044 | -0.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0247 | 0.59 |
| γ3 | -0.0589 | -1.34 |
| γ4 | 0.0688 | 1.08 |
| γ5 | -0.0796 | -1.21 |
| γ6 | 0.1002 | 1.97** |
| γ7 | -0.0704 | -1.54 |
| γ8 | 0.0423 | 0.99 |
| γ9 | -0.0396 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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