V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
46.73%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
44.59%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Month
38.95%
decreased by 7.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8854 | 10.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8511 | 28.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0197 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.0564 | -1.29 |
| γ4 | 0.0679 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -0.0801 | -1.21 |
| γ6 | 0.1029 | 2.01** |
| γ7 | -0.0766 | -1.68* |
| γ8 | 0.0540 | 1.23 |
| γ9 | -0.0523 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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