V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.47%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
26.94%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
27.99%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8786 | 10.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0680 | 5.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8449 | 26.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0038 | -0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0234 | 0.58 |
| γ3 | -0.0577 | -1.37 |
| γ4 | 0.0684 | 1.11 |
| γ5 | -0.0803 | -1.25 |
| γ6 | 0.1027 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -0.0757 | -1.71* |
| γ8 | 0.0519 | 1.21 |
| γ9 | -0.0501 | -1.69* |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8786 | 10.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0680 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8449 | 26.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0038 | -0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0234 | 0.58 |
| γ3 | -0.0577 | -1.37 |
| γ4 | 0.0684 | 1.11 |
| γ5 | -0.0803 | -1.25 |
| γ6 | 0.1027 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -0.0757 | -1.71* |
| γ8 | 0.0519 | 1.21 |
| γ9 | -0.0501 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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