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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

26.47%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

26.94%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

27.99%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8786
10.15***
αARCH0.0680
5.81***
βGARCH0.8449
26.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0038
-0.15
γ20.0234
0.58
γ3-0.0577
-1.37
γ40.0684
1.11
γ5-0.0803
-1.25
γ60.1027
2.06**
γ7-0.0757
-1.71*
γ80.0519
1.21
γ9-0.0501
-1.69*

0.913

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8786
10.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0680
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8449
26.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0038
-0.15
γ20.0234
0.58
γ3-0.0577
-1.37
γ40.0684
1.11
γ5-0.0803
-1.25
γ60.1027
2.06**
γ7-0.0757
-1.71*
γ80.0519
1.21
γ9-0.0501
-1.69*

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days