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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

46.73%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

44.59%

decreased by 2.28%

1 Month

38.95%

decreased by 7.92%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8854
10.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0674
5.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8511
28.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0011
-0.04
γ20.0197
0.47
γ3-0.0564
-1.29
γ40.0679
1.07
γ5-0.0801
-1.21
γ60.1029
2.01**
γ7-0.0766
-1.68*
γ80.0540
1.23
γ9-0.0523
-1.73*

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days