Merck & Co Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
27.70%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
27.77%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
28.03%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0224 | 1.81* |
| αARCH | 0.0747 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9822 | 182.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0527 | -4.15*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0224 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9822 | 182.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0527 | -4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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