V-Lab
Microsoft Corp EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.82%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
29.06%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
29.95%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 106% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 106% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0306 | 3.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.1217 | 7.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9815 | 230.78*** |
| γleverage | -0.0421 | -3.01*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0306 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1217 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9815 | 230.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0421 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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