V-Lab
American Express Co EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.70%
increased by 1.15%
1 Week
25.99%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
27.12%
increased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 303% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 303% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.1355 | 11.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9860 | 283.41*** |
| γleverage | -0.0817 | -6.48*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1355 | 11.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9860 | 283.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0817 | -6.48*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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