V-Lab
American Express Co Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.37%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
22.01%
decreased by 2.32%
1 Month
18.31%
decreased by 6.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0330 | 27.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1973 | 77.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7957 | 303.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1318 | 23.87*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6559 | 17.40*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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