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V-Lab

American Express Co Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.37%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

22.01%

decreased by 2.32%

1 Month

18.31%

decreased by 6.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of American Express Co APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0330
27.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1973
77.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7957
303.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1318
23.87***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6559
17.40***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days