Gorilla Techno Gro Inc -Redh Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
90.41%
1 Week
90.42%
1 Month
90.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4251361 trading days (~16870.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.71 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0175 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.0867 | 1.91* |
| βGARCH | 0.8764 | 23.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.1346 | -0.91 |
| δpower | 2.7123 | 2.47** |
1.000
Persistence4251361d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 1.91* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8764 | 23.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1346 | -0.91 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7123 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4251361 days
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