Stran & Company Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
47.12%
1 Week
48.12%
1 Month
51.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 102% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 2.69 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7941 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9145 | 256.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1301 | -7.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.6897 | 14.58*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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