V-Lab
Stran & Company Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
58.97%
1 Week
62.66%
1 Month
68.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 108% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3637 | 21.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4504 | 14.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1885 | -8.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4131 | 2.53** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0979 | 2.31** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8907 | 19.71*** |
Persistence:
0.720
Half-life:
2 days
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