V-Lab
Stran & Company Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
76.42%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
81.05%
increased by 3.33%
1 Month
87.00%
increased by 9.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8806 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2010 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6061 | 10.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1608 | -4.10*** |
| γ2 | 1.6427 | 3.41*** |
| γ3 | 0.0860 | 0.22 |
| γ4 | -1.6866 | -4.44*** |
| γ5 | 2.2693 | 6.03*** |
| γ6 | -1.9490 | -5.82*** |
| γ7 | 1.7606 | 5.65*** |
| γ8 | -2.0962 | -3.77*** |
| γ9 | 1.8712 | 2.48** |
| γ10 | -0.9668 | -1.91* |
Persistence:
0.807
Half-life:
3 days
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