V-Lab
Oklo Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
78.27%
decreased by 7.28%
1 Week
83.67%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
102.45%
increased by 16.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 8, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 10502 trading days (~41.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1846 | 1.95* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2311 | 0.70 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7689 | 2.33** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -15.6749 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | 19.1285 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | 4.0638 | 0.19 |
| γ4 | -19.3249 | -0.95 |
| γ5 | 31.2280 | 2.57** |
| γ6 | -32.9639 | -3.86*** |
| γ7 | 13.3498 | 1.17 |
| γ8 | -0.2402 | -0.02 |
| γ9 | 0.2517 | 0.03 |
| γ10 | 0.9845 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10502 days
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