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V-Lab

Oklo Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

78.27%

decreased by 7.28%

1 Week

83.67%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Month

102.45%

increased by 16.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Oklo Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 8, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 10502 trading days (~41.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1846
1.95*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2311
0.70
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7689
2.33**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-15.6749
-0.41
γ219.1285
0.40
γ34.0638
0.19
γ4-19.3249
-0.95
γ531.2280
2.57**
γ6-32.9639
-3.86***
γ713.3498
1.17
γ8-0.2402
-0.02
γ90.2517
0.03
γ100.9845
0.17

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

10502 days