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Oklo Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

127.86%

increased by 19.21%

1 Week

127.50%

increased by 18.85%

1 Month

126.08%

increased by 17.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Oklo Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 8, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~242 daysv = 2.91 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9495
2.31**
αARCH0.1139
12.93***
βGARCH0.9971
813.33***
νDF2.9145
41.88***

0.997

Persistence

242d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9495
2.31**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1139
12.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
813.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9145
41.88***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

242 days