V-Lab
Oklo Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
127.86%
1 Week
127.50%
1 Month
126.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 8, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9495 | 2.31** |
| αARCH | 0.1139 | 12.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 813.33*** |
| νDF | 2.9145 | 41.88*** |
0.997
Persistence242d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9495 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1139 | 12.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 813.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9145 | 41.88*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
242 days
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