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V-Lab

Oklo Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

56.03%

decreased by 6.69%

1 Week

55.88%

decreased by 6.84%

1 Month

55.28%

decreased by 7.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Oklo Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 8, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 234 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~234 daysv = 2.91 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9441
2.29**
αARCH0.1151
13.10***
βGARCH0.9970
778.94***
νDF2.9079
42.30***

0.997

Persistence

234d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9441
2.29**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1151
13.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
778.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9079
42.30***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

234 days