V-Lab
Oklo Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
56.03%
decreased by 6.69%
1 Week
55.88%
decreased by 6.84%
1 Month
55.28%
decreased by 7.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 8, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 234 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~234 daysv = 2.91 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9441 | 2.29** |
| αARCH | 0.1151 | 13.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9970 | 778.94*** |
| νDF | 2.9079 | 42.30*** |
0.997
Persistence234d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9441 | 2.29** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1151 | 13.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 778.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9079 | 42.30*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
234 days
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