CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	36
αARCH	0.1399	4.73***
βGARCH	0.9230	66.16***
γleverage	-0.1259	-2.17**
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	0.75
λ₂forecast adj.	0.3314	1.05
λ₃tau persistence	0.0000	0.00

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	36
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1399	4.73***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9230	66.16***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1259	-2.17**
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	0.75
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.3314	1.05
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.0000	0.00

V-Lab

Oklo Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Oklo Inc Analyses