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V-Lab

Tesla Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

53.27%

increased by 1.22%

1 Week

54.29%

increased by 2.24%

1 Month

56.63%

increased by 4.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tesla Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 129% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0215
3.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8564
44.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0278
6.03***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

3.2080
0.07
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7495
0.07
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.892

Half-life:

6 days