V-Lab
Tesla Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
53.27%
increased by 1.22%
1 Week
54.29%
increased by 2.24%
1 Month
56.63%
increased by 4.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 129% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0215 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8564 | 44.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0278 | 6.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.2080 | 0.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7495 | 0.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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