V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
69.56%
decreased by 3.29%
1 Week
73.01%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
80.73%
increased by 7.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1203 | 24.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7857 | 116.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0120 | -1.71* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.4020 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8225 | 0.34 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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