Big Sky Industrial Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
61.70%
1 Week
67.00%
1 Month
77.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1298 | 27.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7767 | 111.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0163 | -2.25** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.3763 | 1.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3577 | 1.48 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5644 | 1.86* |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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