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V-Lab

Big Sky Industrial Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

116.83%

increased by 53.41%

1 Week

114.60%

increased by 51.18%

1 Month

102.66%

increased by 39.24%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Big Sky Industrial Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

116
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1297
27.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7770
111.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0163
-2.26**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.3708
1.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3558
1.48
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5663
1.87*

Persistence:

0.899

Half-life:

6 days