V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
68.74%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Week
72.09%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
77.63%
increased by 5.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 116 | |
| αARCH | 0.1199 | 6.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7860 | 28.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.0117 | -0.40 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.4053 | 2.57** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8217 | 4.85*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.900
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7860 | 28.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0117 | -0.40 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.4053 | 2.57** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8217 | 4.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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