V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
80.25%
1 Week
80.52%
1 Month
81.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 17% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3116 | 18.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1842 | 65.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8158 | 309.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0459 | -6.89*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7140 | 46.81*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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