CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.97%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
15.94%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
15.84%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. The volatility power δ = 2.37 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9812 | 125.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5088 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3692 | 18.85*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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