Stewart Information Services Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
31.13%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
31.42%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
32.50%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 28% more than positive returns
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0653 | 19.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1332 | 48.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 364.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0645 | 9.75*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9076 | 46.31*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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