V-Lab
Stewart Information Services Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.72%
increased by 2.17%
1 Week
49.73%
increased by 1.18%
1 Month
46.59%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1042 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 7.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8844 | 59.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2425 | -5.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.4640 | 7.04*** |
| γ3 | -0.3175 | -4.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.0833 | 1.20 |
| γ5 | 0.0761 | 1.38 |
| γ6 | -0.1499 | -2.59*** |
| γ7 | 0.1192 | 1.62 |
| γ8 | 0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -0.0458 | -0.52 |
| γ10 | 0.0054 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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