V-Lab
Stewart Information Services Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
52.42%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
52.39%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
52.28%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 133% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0558 | 12.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0417 | 17.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9251 | 492.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0553 | 10.51*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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