V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.02%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
12.73%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
15.15%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4795 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9246 | 113.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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