AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
2.94%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
3.02%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
3.35%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 294 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~294 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5629 | 4.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0740 | 11.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9237 | 147.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0413 | -0.88 |
| γ3 | 0.0590 | 1.84* |
| γ4 | -0.0707 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.0743 | 4.35*** |
0.998
Persistence294d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5629 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 11.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9237 | 147.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0413 | -0.88 |
| γ3 | 0.0590 | 1.84* |
| γ4 | -0.0707 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.0743 | 4.35*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
294 days
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