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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

5.73%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

6.04%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

7.12%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 400 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~400 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4426
4.52***
αARCH0.0709
10.39***
βGARCH0.9274
132.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0094
-3.18***
γ20.0138
3.84***

0.998

Persistence

400d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4426
4.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0709
10.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9274
132.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0094
-3.18***
γ20.0138
3.84***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

400 days