V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.73%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
6.04%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
7.12%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 400 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~400 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4426 | 4.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0709 | 10.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9274 | 132.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0094 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 0.0138 | 3.84*** |
0.998
Persistence400d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4426 | 4.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0709 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9274 | 132.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0094 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 0.0138 | 3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
400 days
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