V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
3.23%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
3.34%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.71%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 280 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~280 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5663 | 4.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0740 | 11.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9235 | 144.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 0.38 |
| γ2 | -0.0425 | -0.92 |
| γ3 | 0.0588 | 1.85* |
| γ4 | -0.0683 | -2.54** |
| γ5 | 0.0704 | 4.13*** |
0.998
Persistence280d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5663 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 11.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9235 | 144.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 0.38 |
| γ2 | -0.0425 | -0.92 |
| γ3 | 0.0588 | 1.85* |
| γ4 | -0.0683 | -2.54** |
| γ5 | 0.0704 | 4.13*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
280 days
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