V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
8.04%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
8.49%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
10.08%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4004 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0712 | 9.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9258 | 121.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0058 | -2.27** |
| γ2 | 0.0087 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
232 days
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