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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

2.94%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

3.02%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

3.35%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 294 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5629
4.50***
αARCH0.0740
11.15***
βGARCH0.9237
147.62***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0109
0.33
γ2-0.0413
-0.88
γ30.0590
1.84*
γ4-0.0707
-2.61***
γ50.0743
4.35***

0.998

Persistence

294d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5629
4.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
11.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9237
147.62***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0109
0.33
γ2-0.0413
-0.88
γ30.0590
1.84*
γ4-0.0707
-2.61***
γ50.0743
4.35***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

294 days