AES Corp/VA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.65%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
13.37%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
15.81%
increased by 3.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4246 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 8.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9243 | 112.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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