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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

10.77%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

11.71%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

14.85%

increased by 3.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 61% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0422
22.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1109
34.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8541
432.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0679
11.37***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

629 days