AES Corp/VA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
10.77%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
11.71%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
14.85%
increased by 3.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 61% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0422 | 22.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1109 | 34.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8541 | 432.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0679 | 11.37*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
629 days
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