Caterpillar Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.54%
increased by 4.48%
1 Week
50.76%
increased by 3.70%
1 Month
48.03%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 46% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1097 | 34.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1284 | 39.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8162 | 337.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0592 | 9.87*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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