Caterpillar Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
39.65%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Week
39.33%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Month
38.22%
decreased by 3.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 45% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1110 | 8.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1296 | 10.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8149 | 84.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0587 | 2.45** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1110 | 8.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1296 | 10.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8149 | 84.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0587 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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