International Business Machines Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
37.33%
increased by 1.65%
1 Week
37.19%
increased by 1.51%
1 Month
36.66%
increased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0553 | 7.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1515 | 11.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7905 | 84.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0883 | 3.88*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0553 | 7.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1515 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7905 | 84.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0883 | 3.88*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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