International Business Machines Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
38.64%
1 Week
34.92%
1 Month
25.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 17% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0351 | 6.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.2127 | 21.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7756 | 72.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.1290 | 6.94*** |
| δpower | 0.5952 | 4.04*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0351 | 6.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2127 | 21.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7756 | 72.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1290 | 6.94*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5952 | 4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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