V-Lab
Exponent Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
31.43%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
32.03%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
34.23%
increased by 3.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 17% more than positive returns
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1158 | 13.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1294 | 42.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8578 | 332.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0362 | 4.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1209 | 42.06*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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