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V-Lab

Exponent Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

30.20%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

30.93%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

32.29%

increased by 1.53%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Exponent Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2245
6.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0757
6.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8027
26.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0658
-2.58**
γ20.0665
1.67*
γ3-0.0221
-0.60
γ40.0817
1.96**
γ5-0.1146
-2.65***
γ60.0800
1.79*
γ7-0.0154
-0.32
γ8-0.0079
-0.18
γ9-0.0114
-0.43

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days