V-Lab
Exponent Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.20%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
30.93%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
32.29%
increased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2245 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0757 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8027 | 26.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0658 | -2.58** |
| γ2 | 0.0665 | 1.67* |
| γ3 | -0.0221 | -0.60 |
| γ4 | 0.0817 | 1.96** |
| γ5 | -0.1146 | -2.65*** |
| γ6 | 0.0800 | 1.79* |
| γ7 | -0.0154 | -0.32 |
| γ8 | -0.0079 | -0.18 |
| γ9 | -0.0114 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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