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V-Lab

Exponent Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

33.94%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Week

34.18%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

35.07%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Exponent Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 192 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.3754
4.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0670
78.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9964
1,357.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1145
32.43***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

192 days