V-Lab
Exponent Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
33.94%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
34.18%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
35.07%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 192 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.3754 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0670 | 78.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 1,357.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1145 | 32.43*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
192 days
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