V-Lab
News Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.77%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Week
25.03%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
25.82%
decreased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 4.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.0892 | 1.41 |
| αARCH | 0.0868 | 4.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9587 | 27.95*** |
| νDF | 4.9888 | 1.05 |
0.959
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0892 | 1.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0868 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9587 | 27.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9888 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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