News Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
25.04%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
25.28%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
26.00%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 5.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.1058 | 1.53 |
| αscore | 0.0870 | 4.07*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9575 | 28.73*** |
| νDF | 5.2360 | 0.98 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.1058 | 1.53 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0870 | 4.07*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9575 | 28.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2360 | 0.98 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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