V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
14,634.47%
increased by 2,011.79%
1 Week
14,590.32%
increased by 1,967.64%
1 Month
14,415.93%
increased by 1,793.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 80.2152 | 10.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1552 | 80.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 3,334.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0044 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
229 days
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