V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
3,489.97%
decreased by 1,016.34%
1 Week
3,477.78%
decreased by 1,028.53%
1 Month
3,429.73%
decreased by 1,076.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.7775 | 9.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1596 | 81.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9965 | 2,783.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0193 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
198 days
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